March 28 Weekend Review

Bflakaz Weekend Review

March 28, 2014

Recap of Previous Week's Trades

1. AAPL 510/550 Mar28 short strangle: 5 spreads @ 1.15, closed 0.00

2. NFLX  Apr14 380 put: 2 contracts @ 6.00, closed 21.00

3. TWTR  Apr14 50 put: 4 contracts @ 3.35, closed 5.85

4. DDD  Apr14 60 call: 8 contracts @ 1.82, closed 3.45

5. GILD Apr14 70 call: 4 contracts @ 3.00, closed 5.80

1. AAPL: Managed to have steel gonads and hold out for the maximum possible profit reached upon expiration here. Had confidence from the success of my other trades this week. The consolidation pattern though has now broken, and based on current open interest and volume in the 550 front contracts, I'd rather take a long position.

2. NFLX: Last weekend I said that if NFLX broke 400 then we'd really be in for a drop. That happened rather quickly on Monday, so I bought some puts at the 100ma strike. They proved to be profitable and I flipped them that same day when NFLX hit 370, in anticipation for an oversold bounce, which happened.

3. TWTR: Last weekend I said that a 50 bounce on TWTR might be too easy a trade, and I said to watch 50 closely. Once again I was proven right and decided to go short TWTR on Monday as it was then solidly stuck under 50. Closed the position Wednesday when TWTR hit 45.

4. DDD: Last weekend I said that DDD could be forming a head and shoulders pattern, and that if the neckline support @ 55 didn't hold then it would be wise to go short. I also said that because DDD is already in oversold territory that it might be due for a bounce, which was proven true. Bought 60 strike calls on Monday when DDD bounced off the 55 lows and didn't look back.

5. GILD: Last weekend I said that GILD was oversold and that it would be a candidate for a long position if the 200ma proved support. Well, it never quite hit the 200ma, and when it started to reverse I jumped in, perhaps foolishly. But I was again proven right, selling out right as it hit 75.

So, all in all, it's been a FANTASTIC week! One that's going in the books, for sure. Never before have I been 100% right on every prediction, and with such monetary gain! Let's add some totals...

1. AAPL: Sold for 1.15 x 500 = $575
2. NFLX: Bought for 6.00 x 200 = 1200, Sold for 21.00 x 200 = 4200, Profit = $3,000
3. TWTR: Bought for 3.35 x 400 = 1340, Sold for 5.85 x 400 = 2340, Profit = $1,000
4. DDD: Bought for 1.82 x 800 = 1456, Sold for 3.45 x 800 = 2760, Profit = $1,304
5. GILD: Bought for 3.00 x 400 = 1200, Sold for 5.80 x 400 = 2320, Profit = $1,120

Total Spent = $5,196, Total Profit = $6,424

A One-Hundred and Twenty-Four Percent Gain

Management of Current Trades

There are no current trades being held over the weekend.

Trade Setups for the Upcoming Week

After the huge success this past week has been, I will not be making any moves next week, most likely. I'd keep watch on the Momo's, though. I think they really have been oversold and are more than due for a bounce, even if it is just a relief rally. It will take another week at least to determine if this is a new downtrend or if this is just a sector rotation out of Momo's to safer equities due to QE ending soon. Also I'll be watching AAPL to see if we can get to 550.

The March jobs report this Friday I think will be of importance. Yellen and the Wall Street economists can't blame bad weather as the detriment to job growth anymore, and investors want to see a solid number. I believe the market is susceptible to downside risk going into the next quarter. Volatility is here to stay for awhile. The S&P 500 currently has good support around 1840, and I think that's the number to watch going into this week. 

March 22, 2014 Weekend Review

Bflakaz Weekend Review

March 22, 2014

Recap of Previous Week's Trades

1. AAPL 510/550 short strangle: 5 spreads @ 1.15 3/18, now 0.67
2. NFLX 385/395/445/455 iron condor: 5 spreads @ 1.40 3/18, closed @ 1.39
3. Z long 100 shares @ 93.26 3/18, closed 100.12

Trade Setups for the Upcoming Week

1. DDD: Looks to be forming head and shoulders pattern. Wait for confirmation by solid close below support @ 55. Target 45 to 40 on short side. Only catch is 52wk lows on RSI and MACD, plus the price action on Friday's close shows that maybe this catches support here. Watch this through the week.

2. GILD: Many were calling the news and price action in GILD on Friday to be bursting of the “biotech bubble.” Maybe, maybe not. Price action was decent on Friday; bounce off lows faded into the afternoon. GILD is also showing 2 year lows on RSI and MACD, but I would not enter for a long position here. 200MA is around 67.5, watch the action around there. Don't try to catch falling knives. Very strong uptrend still very much intact.

3. TWTR: This was pinned to 50 for Friday's close from high open interest on the March 50 puts. This has seen 50 before and it proved good support. Seems like the trade is too easy though, be wary. Watch that 50 level.

Management of Current Trades

1. AAPL: Consolidation and more consolidation around 530. Short strangles and iron condors will remain safe around the 500-560 strikes for about another week, I'd estimate, based on prior consolidation periods. Planning to let θ collect over the weekend and take profits Monday or Tuesday. I'd watch for a straddle opportunity soon.

2. NFLX: Oh, Netflix. Escaped with a paltry $90 / $525 on the bull put spread and decided that consolidation would occur around 420 before moving lower. Not the case. That nasty candle is telling me that 400 is eminent, as I've predicted since the 420 break. If 400 doesn't hold then look out below. This looks nasty. Selling call spreads, buying puts, or shorting shares will be next if it breaks 400, if not, then stay away because this name can dupe you. Momo's are getting hit HARD!

Trade of the Week

Zillow (Z)

It's rare that a trade this perfect comes along. Z was range bound between 93 and 80 for the entirety of 2014. The most recent run up had a meaningful breakout close of 93.26, where I entered by buying 100 shares, with a stop at 92 and a price target below the old highs at 103. Z was marching to 100. I sold half the position the next day at 98.35, and the following day I sold 25 at 99 and 25 at 100.12 for a total profit of $569. Just a beautiful setup and perfect execution!

Decided against calls here; didn't see and good r/r setups with spreads, and deep ITM (Δ > .7) calls are just so expensive in Z, nor was I expecting the lightning fast run to 100, so the time frame for the calls was hard to determine.