Monday, September 21, 2015
Thursday, September 17, 2015
No Rate Hike, What A Surprise ...
I'm not shocked, but I honestly thought it was a 50/50 shot this time around.
Long Live ZIRP!
This non-event should suck vol out of the indexes, however the VIX at this point in time (2:08pm) is not reacting much, just like the markets. I expect the VIX to continue to "take the stairs down" over the next month to within it's normal range.
Yesterday I rolled up the SPY 182/185 (0.50->0.23) to 190/193 (0.70). Looks like it was the right choice.
Those VIX 13p are still around the same value that I originally picked them up at. I might have gone too far out of the money, unfortunately, for this to be a winning trade. But, we will see!
The Fed has cited China as a concern and a big factor on why rates were not raised. What a shock.
At this point a December hike is also off the table. The Fed is in full volatility reduction mode. Can't let the markets go down! Must keep asset bubbles alive! It's all we have to show for out multi-trillion dollar money printing!
Long Live ZIRP!
This non-event should suck vol out of the indexes, however the VIX at this point in time (2:08pm) is not reacting much, just like the markets. I expect the VIX to continue to "take the stairs down" over the next month to within it's normal range.
Yesterday I rolled up the SPY 182/185 (0.50->0.23) to 190/193 (0.70). Looks like it was the right choice.
Those VIX 13p are still around the same value that I originally picked them up at. I might have gone too far out of the money, unfortunately, for this to be a winning trade. But, we will see!
The Fed has cited China as a concern and a big factor on why rates were not raised. What a shock.
At this point a December hike is also off the table. The Fed is in full volatility reduction mode. Can't let the markets go down! Must keep asset bubbles alive! It's all we have to show for out multi-trillion dollar money printing!
LONG LIVE ZIRP
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
One Down One to Go
I bought back the iron condor in BABA today for 0.38 from 0.75, making a profit of 50%, my usual take-off point. Awesome.
Now just the SPY (and VIX) remain. Well, volatility has taken the stairs down so to speak, but because it isn't falling faster than the price of SPY is rising, the position is still down.
I think after the Fed meeting, regardless of what they say, vol will come in. If the markets jump I'll be in for some heat but if not, I should be heading back to even on the position.
The decision is Thursday ... see ya then!
Now just the SPY (and VIX) remain. Well, volatility has taken the stairs down so to speak, but because it isn't falling faster than the price of SPY is rising, the position is still down.
I think after the Fed meeting, regardless of what they say, vol will come in. If the markets jump I'll be in for some heat but if not, I should be heading back to even on the position.
The decision is Thursday ... see ya then!
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Is the Current Volatility Scenario an Opportunity Missed?
Same positions on ... the 167/170 put side of the SPY condor was rolled and now its 182/185/203/206. Overall vol is beginning to come down, but I don't think it will really drop until after the Fed meeting on September 16-17.
I still think a September hike has about a 50/50 chance of occurring. Tomorrow's jobs report won't affect the Fed's decision ... well, at least I hope it doesn't; I hope the Fed isn't THAT short-term focused! My view on Fed hikes have been made very clear.
At this point I have no idea how the markets would react either way. If the Fed hikes, does vol get crushed since that has more or less been priced in? Do the markets mostly do nothing? If they don't hike, does that signal that the Fed is worried about global macro? Does that increase vol?
Who knows, we'll just have to wait and see.
Also short vol in BABA with a big wide iron condor. 55/57.5/75/77.5 @ 0.75
Right now I'm just gonna hang on to my current positions and try to ride it out. I know that a weathered professional would say, "this isn't the time to hold back, rather, bring more chips to the table!" Well, I'm not a weathered professional. The way I see it, if I can hold my own with these positions and produce a profit in these times of high vol, that will be a chip on my shoulder. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, right?
Is it an opportunity missed? Definitely. But it's only a good opportunity if you know what you are doing. I don't really know how to manage vol spikes at present because not enough of them have occurred since Q4 2012, when I started trading. The more that occur, the better I will become at navigating through them and making the best of the opportunities that they present.
Basically right now I'm trying to make it through the Fed meeting, and September overall. The last time we had this kind of draw-down in the markets was October 2014, which I mostly sidelined. Not this time. While I won't really be stepping up to the plate, I will still be taking risk ... just the best set-ups possible.
I still think a September hike has about a 50/50 chance of occurring. Tomorrow's jobs report won't affect the Fed's decision ... well, at least I hope it doesn't; I hope the Fed isn't THAT short-term focused! My view on Fed hikes have been made very clear.
At this point I have no idea how the markets would react either way. If the Fed hikes, does vol get crushed since that has more or less been priced in? Do the markets mostly do nothing? If they don't hike, does that signal that the Fed is worried about global macro? Does that increase vol?
Who knows, we'll just have to wait and see.
Also short vol in BABA with a big wide iron condor. 55/57.5/75/77.5 @ 0.75
Right now I'm just gonna hang on to my current positions and try to ride it out. I know that a weathered professional would say, "this isn't the time to hold back, rather, bring more chips to the table!" Well, I'm not a weathered professional. The way I see it, if I can hold my own with these positions and produce a profit in these times of high vol, that will be a chip on my shoulder. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, right?
Is it an opportunity missed? Definitely. But it's only a good opportunity if you know what you are doing. I don't really know how to manage vol spikes at present because not enough of them have occurred since Q4 2012, when I started trading. The more that occur, the better I will become at navigating through them and making the best of the opportunities that they present.
Basically right now I'm trying to make it through the Fed meeting, and September overall. The last time we had this kind of draw-down in the markets was October 2014, which I mostly sidelined. Not this time. While I won't really be stepping up to the plate, I will still be taking risk ... just the best set-ups possible.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)