SCTY
Converted this to an iron condor from a bull put yesterday and may have overcompensated. Old resistance was blown through on a large down day for stocks, maybe I jumped the gun.
The red lines are the range of the condor, blue are support/resistance, and green is a rough channel that SCTY has been in since the triple top. I expected SCTY to bounce more off the 55 support, but it did not want to get past 60, and sold off violently. Now instead of being a delta positive position, I've got a delta neutral, and it could head higher... sweet! (sarcasm) Part of that was me forgetting that I was in November contracts, not October, like the other credit trades I've got on. Rookie mistake and I'll probably pay for it...
SCTY jumped over 3% to 57 as I wrote this, come on man! :(
GPRO
Elaborated yesterday, the GPRO strangle has a wide range; the top end is off the chart! Blue lines once again show support, although this stock hasn't been trading long enough for it to form real support and resistance, so take those with a grain of salt.
TKMR
The ebola play lost steam as its drugs ended up not being used to treat the Dallas ebola patient. It sold off (as expected), and got dangerously close to the 20 short put. I rolled down the 35 call to 30 yesterday, so I now have a tighter range. The Dallas patient died today, and now CRMX or w/e has switched places with TKMR, so I'm a little worried this may see a resurgence. Take support/resistance lines with a grain of salt, again.
SPY
Holy Fed minutes batman! SPY tagged a double bottom today and is now forming a bullish engulfing candle, signaling a move higher. In addition, MACD is reading a divergence and is at previous "bounce" levels, so that is a good sign.
More importantly for the 196/198 bull call trade though, SPY must hold its long term bullish trend:
SPY has to close out the week above that trend line, or else we might see a further decline past 190.
The trend is your friend!
RUT (IWM) breaking down below that crucial support line, down 2.4% on the day. Kicking myself for missing that trade, especially since my SPY spread is not going well. But, I picked the SPY long because of the trend line, and I had faith that we would continue higher as BTD bulls came in. It appears I was wrong, and equities will continue to go lower from here. Hoping that we see a move up tomorrow, but as I've learned, hoping is worthless. SPY will probably close below that trend line, and I'll lose about 25-35% on the trade. Oh well...
ReplyDeleteStrong support is around 1900 / 200ma, but I don't know if we will see a strong bounce off. If SPY hits 190 and rockets back up to 198, I'll be very pissed!
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