Tuesday, June 16, 2015

June Holds No Rate Hike

No surprise.

The TLT bull put (111/113p) is lookin' good. Vol should really come down tomorrow and I'll probably take that trade off. It's @ 0.20 now, originally sold for 0.40. Closed at the highs of the day, usually signalling continuation to the upside tomorrow.

Greece continues to be an unknown. It looks more and more like no bailout deal will be reached, but a Grexit is still up in the air. Although vol has remained elevated, obviously, the time decay effect has helped the FXE position. now trading at 0.80, originally sold for 0.90.

Markets generally don't break out in the Summer, so I'd expect more of the same choppiness until September, when the rate hike decision will again be a no. I expect bonds to stabilize through the Summer as well now that a surprise June hike is off the table.

GL HF DD

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