Wednesday, August 5, 2015

AAPL and DD

standard vol selling here.

AAPL 100/105/125/130 SEP15 @ 1.15 x 3 [61 PoP]
DD 47.5/50/57.5/60 SEP15 @ 0.50 x 5 [65 PoP]

Portfolio at risk, 7.1%

I'm pretty far away from the market on AAPL on both sides but I'm pretty close to DD on the call side, however, that's probably more balanced since DD is in a downtrend but is nearing support and could bottom out soon.

Vol overall is down across the market right now and nothing looks good directionally either. I thought TWTR might break down but I prefer to play reversals at support/resistance rather than breakdowns/breakouts and continuations. I feel they're less reliable, and I'm no good at trading momentum.

I think there will be more volatility towards mid month as people frantically pour over the data to see if a rate hike is coming. IMHO, if this Friday's jobs report is "bad," Granny Yellen will hold off on that 0.25% hike. Which obviously would not surprise me, but I think there's a 50/50 chance for a September hike and a 75% chance that FF rate will be 0.25% by year's end. But remember, I don't count that as a hike because 0.25% is just the top of the current target range!

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