No, I found it. I profited from it. But execution-wise this was an opportunity missed.
Home Depot HD was following a classic Bollinger OB scenario, and the markets started to roll over. So, I got short, with a plan to leg-out of the put spread when it passed 119.
I didn't.
I still made a $360 profit on the position, but I could have made over $1000.
Legging-out is very hard to time, unfortunately. And since you expose yourself to "pure" delta, you have to be damn sure once you take off that short leg that momentum will continue in your favor. If it reverses, your gains could be washed and could turn into losses very, very quickly.
So although it could have been better, I'll take $360 profit any day.
In other news, stocks are really rolling over on China. S&P dipped (and is currently) below 2000, and while that's arbitrary, it's a clean break from the trading range we've been in for about 7 months. Not good. While I am not sure on whether or not to short the market, I stand at the ready to sell VIX calls and SPY/SPX puts or and Iron Condor, cause vol is getting juiced.
With the big leaders in the market selling off visciously over the past couple of weeks, it would not surprise me if a "correction" is on the way and potentially a mini bear market. I say "correction" because this market hasn't gone anywhere all year and looks quite toppy. But, with the Fed still around, I don't think a prolonged bear market is in the making. China will go down into a steep recession probably in the next year or 18 months, and a bear market in most assets will surely accompany that. But, that's not for awhile. I wouldn't step in and buy-the-dip here, though, because ... where has the market gone all year? There's no point in BTD when the market is not trending higher, y'know?
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