Friday, June 6, 2014

An Update on the Iron Condors

Here's a P/L statement for the iron condor trades that are testing the standard deviation theory:

Ticker Position Status Strikes Current Price R/R # of Contracts Max Profit Max Loss Initial Credit Closing Debit P/L Return %
NFLX Closed 295/300/400/405 430.13 1/.2 4 328 1640 0.82 1.23 -164 -50.00%
HPQ Closed 27/29/36/38 33.84 1/.13 10 230 1769 0.23 0.03 200 87.00%
FEYE Closed 21/25/37/41 32.39 1/.16 5 275 1718 0.55 0.2 175 64.00%
P Closed 19/21/29/31 25.58 1/.19 10 320 1684 0.32 0.16 160 50.00%
V Closed 195/200/220/225 213 1/.2 4 336 1680 0.84 0.36 192 57.00%
DDD Closed 38/43/60/65 50.23 1/.11 4 200 1818 0.5 0.19 124 62.00%
Z Open 85/90/125/130 118.14 1/.18 4 300 1666 0.75 N/A -124 -41.33%
FSLR Open 50/52.5/67.5/70 62.88 1/.18 8 312 1733 0.39 N/A 48 15.38%
TSLA Open 170/175/225/230 208.17 1/.23 4 372 1617 0.93 N/A 140 37.63%
TWTR Open 25/28/36/39 33.33 1/.13 7 245 1884 0.35 N/A 42 17.14%

So far, the strategy is proving to be effective! Realized profits are $687 on $10,309 of capital, yielding a 6.66% ROC. Annualize that, that you're looking at 79.92% ROC. If I were to close the remaining open positions, profits would be $669 on $17,209 of capital, yielding a 3.89% ROC and annualized 46.68% ROC. Those are truly great numbers! If pulled off since January, you'd be looking at a 23.34% return, versus the paltry 5.47% return on the S&P 500, 2.1% on the Dow, and 3.47% on NASDAQ.

For the next calendar contracts I plan to 'put my money where my mouth is' and actually play this strategy. The difference will be IV percentages. I picked most of these absolutely randomly. Returns will hopefully be higher with higher IV names.

The results have been so good (so far) that this little experiment is starting to change my processes in option trading...

1 comment:

  1. On a side note, if you were to use the simple A=Pe^rt equation, your $17,209 of capital would become $177,582 in 5 years, a return of 1031.91%! Compare that to the returns of the S&P 500 over the last 5 years, 107.37%, or Apple (AAPL) during the glory days. From 2007-2012, the rise of the iPhone, AAPL returned 504%. Pretty substantial stuff.

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