Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Solar City SCTY rallies faster than an STI



So, I placed an iron condor on SCTY two days ago. It has since rallied over 20%, and unfortunately, blew past my short strike call. Fortunately I was able to roll up the puts and turn a potential $446 loser into only a $100 loser.

SCTY is acquiring some other solar panel company or some bullshit. What happened was a short covering rally that I have never seen in this magnitude! A royal flush.

Unfortunately, the bell curve/sd theory cannot price in what are called black swan events. This would be considered exactly that. A black swan event is a completely unforeseeable scenario that the bell curve cannot account for because of its complete randomness, and therefore, its statistical insignificance. If a bomb blew up inside Fed Ex headquarters, and the stock sold off 20%, options would have no way to price in that move.

Due to this random occurrence, I got whacked. Bad luck I guess. Luckily I know a thing or two about options trading and was able to save myself from destruction.

Fuck's sake, look at the chart! I wasn't the only one caught with my pants down!


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